Ruth Bader Ginsburg, and the Elections

Young Ruth Bader Ginsburg

While I was living my life, Ruth Bader Ginsburg quietly died.

As anticipated, Trump* and McConnel** have combined to set in motion filling the vacancy in the Supreme Court with a woman from the Appeals Court whose politics are considered to be conservative.  While much of the public frustration over the pick has been heatedly negative, I have the distinct suspicion that this lady--Amy Barrett--might be a more reasonable member of the Supreme Court than Kavanaugh, for instance.  So, while the injustice of the inconsistency of the Senate is still raw, there is little we can do about it, except to exercise our right to vote.

It all underscores the problem that many of the things that we depend upon to have government run smoothly are traditions, and precedent, and people's convictions about what sorts of decisions are decent.

On one hand, it might have struck a superficial person like Trump, that a lot of the ways in which things are done hamstring big business, and even medium-sized businessmen like Trump.  (Such as how he conducts his business while he sits in the White House, for instance.  There are plenty of people who could have run his business perfectly well, but no one who would have cut corners like Trump has.)  A lot of these conventions have benefited Democrats in the past, and perhaps Republicans feel that it was time to loosen up those fetters, and get ahead while the Democrats were down.  But when Trump got rolling with all these abuses of power, a few Republicans began to get uncomfortable.

We don't really know what a typical Trump supporter thinks.  The most rabid of them--such as those who turn up for his rallies--probably do not worry about such things very much; they have trust in Trump, and are confident that he will steer them through the quagmire of Government procedures, which they never understood anyway.

A lot of other Republicans are just watching what happens.  They're frustrated with, and sick and tired of, the roll that the Democrats have been on: giving unbelievable rights to women; treating minorities as though they were human beings; being polite to foreigners; making a fuss about the huge profits that the oil companies and the big retailers were making, etc, etc, and are ready to try new ways of pushing the conservative agenda; curtailing the rights of gays, putting the environment on hold, and preventing the Democrats from raising the taxes on the rich to pre-Reagan levels.  If and when they think matters are going beyond their ability to control it, and they want to go back to the old, civilized way of doing things, they can throw out Trump, and tell the world that it was all Trump's fault, and that they were only going along with it to see how far he would go.

Trump knows this, and is suspicious of the Republican Party.  But now he's more confident that the Republican leadership is sufficiently scared of him.  He thinks that the threat of his Tweets will keep them in line.  But the thinking of the multitude of former Republicans is by no means uniform, and very difficult to depend upon.

Fooling around with voting rights, and the election process is something that Trump is perfectly willing to do.  But then, in future elections, what is going to happen?  Not all the conservatives are foolish enough to think that if they win this election, future elections will take care of themselves.

Many of these Republicans have been in politics a long time, and know the pitfalls of breaking the rules, even if the rules are not actually rules, but agreements, and even if these Republicans are getting old, and have bouts of Dementia.

I will find it hard to forgive the Republicans for these several months of uncertainly and confusion they have inflicted upon us.  Many think Trump has been a coward for not facing up to the virus Pandemic the way a Democrat would have.  Well, yes; it is cowardice, but political cowardice, and uncertainty about how to deal with the crisis.  Trump's way has always been to point the finger of blame at some other agency--ideally Obama--and say that it was his fault, or her fault.  But in this case, he is not confident that doing that will work, therefore he has allowed the States to make the unpopular decisions.

During a pandemic, that does not work.  Because Americans have generally felt free to zip around the country, playing golf, attending meetings, meeting their mistresses, or whatever, and so containing the infection in a state is impossible.  Lowering transmission rates has to be handled nationally, which means that the President has to lead the way, and pacify the businesses and employers that the Federal Government will have their backs; and at the same time convince workers and employees that the Federal Government will have their backs.  Unfortunately, US Businesses have set things up so that workers are essentially on their own.  Social Security is a tiny bit of support for workers, which doesn't give them much, and certainly not enough for during a major national disaster***.  The social programs that states have put together are not competent to support citizens during an economic collapse.

If the population at large were sophisticated enough to look at the facts, and make reasonable decisions, Trump could never win this election.  But that's not what we have; for instance the people of Kentucky have been electing Mitch McConnell to the Senate for several decades, though he does not have their welfare at heart.  He does not have anyone's welfare at heart!  (Unfortunately, this is true for certain Democrats as well.)

But we can't make calculations based on what foolish and inconsistent people are likely to do.  (Political Science is a discipline that tries to do this, and by now my readers know that I am deeply annoyed at it.)  So we have to think of ourselves, decide on who we will vote for, refuse to be stampeded, make it clear (if we choose to) to our neighbors how our thinking goes, put up lawn signs, etc, when it is safe to do so, and vote as usual.  Vote anyway, if you don't usually vote!  Don't panic and change your plan, because there is a large number of people--some of whom are deliberately trying to confuse people about the voting procedures; some of whom are trying to foil the plans of those who are trying to confuse us--sending us information in the mail.  This should be outlawed.

So, to summarize: keep calm, and vote.

Arch

*The current President

**The current majority leader in the U.S. Senate.

***This is why the Dems want to make the Safety-Net for workers a much more reliable thing.  This is not Socialism; lots of not-at-all-Socialist countries have powerful safety-nets for when there is massive unemployment, etc.